Regulatory uncertainty and program limits weigh on the sector despite strong demand.

Policy shifts and market caps slow U.S. community solar growth in 2025.                                                                                                                                             

U.S. community solar installations dropped 36% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with just 437 MWdc added, according to a report by Wood Mackenzie and the Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA). The decline follows record growth in 2024 but reflects policy headwinds, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which lowered the five-year outlook by 8% compared to earlier projections. National community solar capacity is expected to contract by 29% in 2025 and shrink by an average of 12% annually through 2030. State-level changes are driving much of the slowdown. Overhauls in New York and Maine, coupled with program transitions in Maryland, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, have delayed projects. Despite this, demand remains strong, with states like New Jersey (3,000 MW) and Massachusetts (900 MW) planning major expansions. Developers are increasingly shifting toward non-residential distributed solar, seen as better positioned for growth amid uncertainty. Cumulative capacity may still surpass 16 GWdc by 2030.